In 2012, China's food industry in the global economic slowdown, the domestic economic downward pressure to increase the situation, to maintain a sustained and healthy and rapid development of the annual food industry output value of nearly 9 trillion yuan, up 21.7% The According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2012, the number of enterprises slaughtered and meat processing enterprises in the country was 3,415, and the assets of the slaughter and meat processing industry totaled 435.5 billion yuan, an increase of 18.64% over the same period of last year. The sales income reached 1,031.8 billion yuan, 18.1%; total profit of 55.9 billion yuan, an increase of 26.86%; industry gross margin was 12.38%. Slaughter and meat processing industry as a whole the number of 98 million employees, an increase of 7.32%. Total meat production in 2012 was 83.44 million tonnes, up 5.4 percent from the previous year. Among them, pork production 53.35 million tons, up 5.6%; beef production 6.62 million tons, up 2.3%; lamb production of 1.43 million tons, up 2.0%; poultry production 18.23 million tons, an increase of 6.7%. At the end of the year, the number of live pigs was 474.49 million, up by 1.6%, and the number of live pigs was 696.28 million, up 5.2%.

Characteristics of Meat Consumption in China

Per capita meat consumption reaches a high level. Since 1980, China's urban and rural residents per capita consumption of meat increased year by year, has reached a higher level. 2011 urban and rural residents per capita consumption of meat were 35 and 23 kg. Since 1982, meat consumption has increased significantly, but nearly 10 years, meat consumption growth has slowed down significantly. From 1982 to 1998, the average growth rate of meat production and pork production was 9.44% and 7.32%, respectively. The growth rate in 1999-2000 gradually decreased to 2.76% and 2.29% respectively. From the different meat point of view, all meat 1980 - 2012 per capita consumption of urban and rural residents were generally on the growth trend, which poultry consumption growth the fastest, the largest increase.

With the increase in household meat consumption, the internal structure of per capita meat consumption of urban and rural residents in China has also undergone great changes. According to the statistical results, in 1980 the national meat consumption structure is pork accounted for 87.6%, 6.4% of beef and mutton, poultry meat accounted for 6%. In 2012, the proportion of pork, poultry, beef, mutton and miscellaneous meat was 64: 19: 9: 6: 2, and there was still a big difference with the world's meat structure. Is the same direction. This consumption structure is difficult to change in the short term. Although the proportion of pork consumption is gradually declining, but China's per capita consumption of meat in the proportion of large pork, accounting for more than 60% of total meat consumption; beef and mutton consumption is less than 20% of total meat consumption, , But the proportion of beef and mutton consumption increased year by year, indicating that there is greater potential for development and adjustment of space; poultry consumption growth in the proportion of fast, poultry consumption growth is also the fastest.

The consumption gap between urban and rural residents is decreasing year by year. China's dual economic structure determines the existence of differences between urban and rural areas, the difference in the consumption of meat is also inevitable. From the per capita consumption of various kinds of meat, the consumption of urban residents in China from 1990 to 2008 has been higher than that of rural residents, but the per capita consumption of meat in rural areas of our country is growing faster than that of urban residents The From 1990 to 2008, it is clear that the per capita meat consumption of urban households in 1990 is twice that of rural residents, 1.8 times in 1995, 1.68 times in 2008, and that for rural meat consumption and cities The gap is narrowing.

Urban and rural residents pork consumption gap is the smallest, the largest gap in beef consumption. From the absolute consumption point of view, in 1990 China's urban residents per capita consumption of pork 18.46 kg, 10.54 kilograms of rural residents consumption, urban 1.75 times the rural areas in 2008, urban per capita consumption of pork is 1.52 times the rural; 1990 urban per capita beef Consumption is 4.27 times the per capita consumption of beef in rural areas in 2008, urban and rural per capita beef consumption gap narrowed to 3.96 times.

The higher the income of the residents, the more the consumption of different income levels was structural differences. There are two forms of household income impact on meat demand: one is the overall impact of the average income level, and the structural impact of income inequality. The overall impact is mainly on the impact of income on the consumption of meat, the impact of income growth on consumption is more obvious Rural household meat consumption demand increases with the increase in income, urban residents per capita pork consumption will be with the income Increase and decrease, while the consumption of beef and mutton and poultry meat is increased.

There are significant differences in the structural consumption of meat products between high-income and low-income residents. High-income households tend to consume poultry and beef, while low-income residents prefer pork. In addition, with the increase in income, the consumption of various meat products is on the rise, indicating that the meat market is still a large room for growth, while the highest income households of pigs, cattle, sheep and poultry than difficult households Respectively, higher than 2.1 times, 2.2 times, 1.5 times and 2.5 times the largest increase in beef and poultry meat, showing that with the increase in income, consumption of higher nutrition cattle and poultry meat in the proportion of meat consumption also improve.

Prospects for Meat Consumption

China's rapid growth of meat consumption at the same time, also faces many major constraints. In addition to animal diseases, the rural residents income is low, quality and safety events, the flow of cold chain and other infrastructure is also seriously constrained the urban and rural residents of the meat consumption level. However, according to the current economic development situation, a comprehensive analysis of the residents income and disease control and other conditions, China's meat consumption there is still a big room for development.

The Dutch cooperative bank believes that China will dominate the growth of meat consumption in the world, is expected in the next 20 years the average annual growth rate will reach 20%. 20 years after China's per capita consumption of meat will be close to the United States, that is, an increase of 70%. There are two reasons. First, with China's urbanization process, rural residents' meat consumption habits will be closer to urban residents. Second, as China's per capita income levels increase, China's per capita meat consumption will be close to the developed countries.

Future meat consumption also has growth potential. From 1985 to 2008, the per capita meat purchase volume of urban residents increased by 1.5% annually, and the average annual increase of rural residents was 1.9%. Although the consumption of meat in rural residents increased at a rate faster than that of urban residents, Low consumption base, the Chinese people's meat consumption is still at a low level, the increase in income caused by the increase in meat consumption tends to continue, the rural income elasticity is still high, to expand the consumption of meat, Need to protect the income level of rural residents.

Meat in the traditional diet of our residents are more upscale food. In the current stage of development of rural areas in China, the higher the income of farmers for meat, eggs, milk, fish and other animal products, the more consumption. This shows that low-income farmers, there are some consumer demand for economic capacity is not enough to be satisfied. Even in the city, with the increase in income, pig cattle and sheep poultry meat, eggs, milk and other categories of livestock products, the more the purchase of the family. FAO's research shows that meat consumption is growing fastest when per capita income is below $ 5,000. At present, most provinces in China's per capita income is still below 5,000 US dollars, but also indicates that the future per capita consumption is still room for improvement. China's per capita meat consumption is expected to be 61 kg in 2015, an annual growth rate of about 1 kg, the growth rate of 1-2% level.

Urban residents' demand for meat is changing towards quality and diversity. Rural residents are still in the higher income of their meat consumption more stage, and urban residents of meat consumption needs to the direction of quality and diversity change. In the case of per capita disposable income for the highest income class, meat purchases have a negative correlation with income, ie, increased incomes, reduced meat purchases (eg pork, beef and mutton), but remain at a higher Level on. This may be due to the increased demand for higher quality meat products by high-income earners, who are willing to spend more money on higher quality meat products (such as green and organic meat); on the other hand Also shows that high-income food consumption structure has been mainly from the meat and eggs to the main fish, shrimp, meat, eggs, vegetables and other more diversified and rich food structure.

Meat import and export trade

China's imports of almost all meat products in 2012 were significantly higher, further increasing the impact on the domestic sluggish livestock market; meat exports continue to decline, China's meat trade deficit continues to expand.

Source: "China Livestock Products and Feed Market Weekly"

In order to curb the rise in meat prices, slowing the upward pressure on CPI, the country from 2011 onwards from a large number of imported pork. In 2012, China's pork imports continued to increase. From the Ministry of Agriculture Market and Economic Information Division data show that in 2012, imports of livestock products reached 14.9 billion US dollars, up 11.2% year on year. From January to December, imports were $ 14.9 billion, up 11.2% year on year; exports were $ 6.44 billion, up 7.4% year on year; the trade deficit was $ 8.46 billion, up 14.2% year on year. General Administration of Customs also released data, in 2012 China's total imports of pork 522,000 tons, respectively, compared with last year and the same period last year rose 11.74% and 161.56%. The value of $ 98 million, an increase of 15.7%; import average price of 1878.4 US dollars per ton, up 3.6%. Among them, the general trade imports of pork 487,000 tons, an increase of 8.9%, accounting for 93.2% of China's total imports of pork; processing trade imports of pork 28,000 tons, an increase of 43.1%, 5.3%.

In 2012, in the context of the excess capacity of pig market in China, the main reason for the increase in pork imports is that, compared with domestic pork prices, foreign pork has obvious price advantage, enterprise import power is strong. Due to the low scale, low farming technology and high feed prices, China's hog cost is high, about 13 yuan / kg, while the United States only 9 yuan / kg. So even with the freight and tariffs, import meat price advantage is still more obvious.

The main source of imported pork for the United States, the European Union, Canada and other countries. In 2007 to 2008 that round of pork prices rose during the process, China's imports of pork volume appeared a more substantial growth. In 2008, China was the second largest pork export market in the United States. In 2009, due to the "swine flu" outbreak, China once suspended from the United States, Mexico and other markets imported pork products. In 2012, the EU surpassed the United States as the largest source of imports. In 2012, China's imports of pork from the EU 269,000 tons, an increase of 64.9%, accounting for 51.4% of China's total imports over the same period. Over the same period, imports from the United States 18.7 million tons, down 26.1%, accounting for 35.7%. In addition, imports from Canada 53,000 tons, an increase of 7.5%.

Poultry meat, with the rapid increase in the number of Chinese broiler breeding, poultry meat imports in recent years showed a downward trend as a whole. China's imports of frozen chicken feet and frozen chicken wing, the two imports accounted for about 70% of total poultry imports. 2008 China's poultry imports the highest, 83.3 million tons; 2011 China from the United States to implement restrictions on white feather broiler products, poultry imports declined slightly; 2012 China poultry meat imports are still slightly increased, will reach 500,000 Ton, an increase of 19% over 2011. Although the domestic broiler industry is developing rapidly, but the consumption preferences, China's poultry meat imports will not be substantially reduced, is expected in 2013 will still be 40-50 million tons.

Beef imports increased significantly in 2012, beef imports and exports totaled 73,604.70 tons, an increase of 31,535.90 tons compared with 2011, the total import and export trade amount of 335 million US dollars, the trade volume of beef imports and exports increased by the increase in demand for beef and other factors, Deficit of $ 17,432.32 million. Compared with 2011 (net exports 1,889.5 tons, trade black $ 2,470.9 million), net exports in 2012 net imports of 49,204.13 tons. Imports of beef 61,404.41 tons in 2012, imports 25,462.56 million, the average price of imports 4,146.70 US dollars / ton. The main importing countries are Australia, Uruguay, Brazil, New Zealand, the number of imports were 26,446,14,497,8,705 and 7,456 tons, an increase of 2 to 4 times. Into 2013, China's beef imports have been increasing, in January and February total imports of the same period in 2011 7 times, up to 26,857 tons, is the annual import volume of 40% in 2012. Australia, Uruguay, Brazil, New Zealand accounted for 90% of China's total imports of beef.

As domestic lamb prices continue to rise, imports of lamb began to show competitiveness. According to the Beijing Oriental Iger Agricultural Consulting Company to monitor the customs data, imports of mutton, the first half of last year, China imported cold frozen lamb 58,335.70 tons, while the same period in 2011 imports of cold frozen lamb 43,721.62 tons, up 33.43%, imports of lamb mainly from New Zealand , Australia and Uruguay. According to industry analysis, now Australia occupies the domestic high-end beef and mutton import market, while Uruguay, New Zealand and Brazil are competing in the low-end market. New Zealand lamb market price of 22 yuan / kg, Uruguay lamb prices are more concessions.